Consider the Lilies

After swearing off reading any more about the 4% rule and its many variations, I fell off the wagon and read another article on the subject. For new readers, in 1994 Bill Bengen published a seminal study of safe rates of withdrawal in retirement in the Journal of Financial Planning that demonstrated a retiree who withdrew 4% of their nest egg in the first year of retirement, then increased that amount to cover inflation in subsequent years had better than a 90% chance of not outliving their money. His work has spawned an industry for statisticians, who by varying assumptions postulate a range of safe withdrawal rates between 3% and 5%. Some even vary the rate according to annual market return so that in good years a retiree can only withdrawal 3% and in down years a retiree can draw up to 5.5%.

All this is based on the assumption that you will not be hit with brutal stock market crash in the first few years of your retirement. If this happens, granny will be a greeter at Walmart or living with her children. Ultimately, we all live by faith of one kind or another.

We can’t predict the future.

For the past 12 years, I have focused intently on reaching THE GOAL, retirement. I am almost there. In less than 7 months I will be retired. I have been saving and investing. Accumulating wealth was my objective. Now that will change, or will it?

I will definitely be spending down my nest egg that is why I have it. As I grow older I know capital preservation will become more important than growth, but I would still like it if my money would continue to grow rather than drift down towards zero. How much to spend? If I spend too much, will I be reduced to eating Alpo? If I spend too little will I deny myself the good things of life that I have earned and that I can afford? I wish to bless both the future and the present. How much can I spend on myself and still do both?

In the end it is all about hearing from God.

The wise and the foolish, the righteous and the wicked, the pious and the impious, will all pass from this world. The Italians have a saying, “When the game is over, the king and the pawn are both placed in the same box.” I hope that the decisions I make in my remaining years are a blessing to both myself and to others.

Luke 12

[15] And he said unto them, Take heed, and beware of covetousness: for a man's life consisteth not in the abundance of the things which he possesseth.
[16] And he spake a parable unto them, saying, The ground of a certain rich man brought forth plentifully:
[17] And he thought within himself, saying, What shall I do, because I have no room where to bestow my fruits?
[18] And he said, This will I do: I will pull down my barns, and build greater; and there will I bestow all my fruits and my goods.
[19] And I will say to my soul, Soul, thou hast much goods laid up for many years; take thine ease, eat, drink, and be merry.
[20] But God said unto him, Thou fool, this night thy soul shall be required of thee: then whose shall those things be, which thou hast provided?
[21] So is he that layeth up treasure for himself, and is not rich toward God.
[22] And he said unto his disciples, Therefore I say unto you, Take no thought for your life, what ye shall eat; neither for the body, what ye shall put on.
[23] The life is more than meat, and the body is more than raiment.
[24] Consider the ravens: for they neither sow nor reap; which neither have storehouse nor barn; and God feedeth them: how much more are ye better than the fowls?
[25] And which of you with taking thought can add to his stature one cubit?
[26] If ye then be not able to do that thing which is least, why take ye thought for the rest?
[27] Consider the lilies how they grow: they toil not, they spin not; and yet I say unto you, that Solomon in all his glory was not arrayed like one of these.
[28] If then God so clothe the grass, which is to day in the field, and to morrow is cast into the oven; how much more will he clothe you, O ye of little faith?
[29] And seek not ye what ye shall eat, or what ye shall drink, neither be ye of doubtful mind.
[30] For all these things do the nations of the world seek after: and your Father knoweth that ye have need of these things.
[31] But rather seek ye the kingdom of God; and all these things shall be added unto you.